Taiwan President Lai Ching-te concludes first overseas visit
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s first oversea state visit to the Pacific concludes on December 6th.
Lai’s weeklong Pacific visit includes Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Palau, with transits through Hawaii and Guam in the US. While the visit carries diplomatic significance, its broader implications lie in the responses from the US and China, particularly given Beijing’s ambitions to alter the regional status quo through the potential use of force. The US responded to Lai’s transit with reasonably high-level engagements, underscoring its support for Taiwan, while China condemned the visit and reaffirmed its One China Policy.
However, it is unlikely that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will launch large-scale military drills near Taiwan in response. The ongoing purge of senior-ranking generals has destabilized China’s military leadership, impacting both its operational capabilities and Xi Jinping’s control. This internal imbalance suggests that Beijing’s response will likely focus on rhetoric rather than significant military action.
In the short term, expect strong diplomatic statements from Beijing, but any military drills, if conducted, are likely to be symbolic and limited in scale. In the medium to long term, however, the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait remains very high, as China has consistently reaffirmed its claims to Taiwan. Domestic challenges, including economic and political instability, could push Xi to take drastic measures to consolidate power, with Lai’s actions further aggravating tensions. If Beijing perceives a narrowing window of opportunity, the likelihood of escalation may increase.
