Turkiye to withdraw from Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe
Turkiye’s suspension of its obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) comes into effect today.
Ratified by Ankara in 1992, the CFE was the most important conventional arms control treaty between Russia and Europe. The treaty sets equal limits on the number of conventional weapons NATO and the now-defunct Warsaw Pact are permitted to deploy between the Atlantic Ocean and the Ural Mountains. Turkiye’s decision comes amid NATO’s decision in November 2023 to suspend the participation of its member-states in the treaty, which was motivated in turn by Russia’s earlier decision to suspend following its invasion of Ukraine.
Turkiye’s move is likely intended to create an image of Turkish solidarity with NATO, but given the CFE’s effective collapse—which began with Russia’s suspension—it is largely a hollow gesture. Ankara has attempted to act as a mediator between Russia and the West. This was most evident by Ankara’s success in brokering the Black Sea Grain Deal but failure to prevent its collapse. In the medium-term, expect Ankara to continue its middle-of-the-road policy, supporting Ukrainian sovereignty and an end to Russia’s military aggression while also encouraging the West to continue to maintain some ties to Russia, particularly economic.
